Researchers identify 63 key climate policies to help meet Paris targets
New research reveals that the world can make significant progress toward the Paris Climate Accord goals by focusing on 63 cases where climate policies have been most impactful. Led by climate econometricians from the University of Oxford, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), the study analysed 1,500 policies documented in a high-quality OECD climate policy database, marking the first time global policies have been compared and ranked for their effectiveness.
The researchers used a methodology developed by Climate Econometrics at the Oxford Martin School’s Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET Oxford), which measured ‘emission breaks’ triggered by policy interventions. This break detection method called indicator saturation estimation, utilises a machine-learning variant to objectively assess potential breaks.
The findings were sobering: across four sectors, 41 countries, two decades, and 1,500 policies, only 63 policies significantly reduced emissions, cutting between 0.6 and 1.8 Gt of CO2. Despite this, the researchers highlighted that policymakers could learn from these 63 effective cases to get back on track.
To aid in this effort, the research team has made the data available to policymakers worldwide, along with a sector-by-sector, country-by-country dashboard for visualisation.
The study concluded that in most cases, the effect sizes of climate policies are larger if a policy instrument is part of a policy mix rather than implemented alone – for example combining carbon pricing with a subsidy. In developed countries, carbon pricing stands out as an effective policy, whereas in developing countries, regulation is the most powerful policy.
The study also concluded that focusing on the 63 cases of effective climate policies would close the current emissions gap to meet the Paris Targets by 26% -41%, a significant contribution.
Study co-author Ebba Mark, a researcher at the Calleva Project at INET Oxford said, “Meeting the Paris Climate objectives necessitates decisive policy action as we are still falling short – data from the UN estimates that there remains a median emissions gap of 23 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030. It is now clear that the persistence of this emissions gap is not only attributable to an ambition gap but also to a gap in the real versus expected outcomes of implemented policies. The 63 success stories identified in this study provide key information about how we can bridge the emissions gap more meaningfully going forward.”
The country-by-country analysis revealed that the UK achieved significant progress in reducing emissions within the electricity sector, with two consecutive emission breaks detected after the introduction of a carbon price floor in mid-2013, which set a minimum price for power producers. However, in other sectors, no notable emission reductions were observed beyond what could be attributed to long-term economic and population trends.
In the US, carbon emissions in the transport sector decreased following measures implemented after the financial crisis. While policy success in the transport sector is typically challenging, making this a positive example of effective climate policy, the absence of further successes in other sectors highlights significant remaining obstacles in areas such as power and industry.
Dr Anupama Sen, Head of Policy Engagement at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment said “In more than 80% of investments the total lifetime cost of a clean technology is considerably lower than that of a fossil technology. While the new UK government’s policies are moving in the right direction, they need to go further and faster to unlock these lower costs. New Oxford research now provides evidence that an optimal mix of policies can achieve this, and rapidly lower a country’s emissions.”