To meet the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement, it is crucial to sustainably remove 7 to 9 billion tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere annually by mid-century. This necessity is underscored in the second “State of Carbon Dioxide Removal” (CDR) report, a comprehensive scientific assessment delivered by over 50 international experts. The report was spearheaded by the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at Oxford University, with the MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) in Berlin as one of the leading institutions.
In 2015, world leaders pledged to try to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5C, as a part of the Paris Agreement. The 1.5C target is usually a 20-year average, rather than a single year.
Jan Minx, head of the MCC working group Applied Sustainability Science said, “Although reducing emissions is the primary way to achieve net-zero, CDR has a critical role to play. However, when scaling up carbon removal technologies, humanity must avoid jeopardizing other goals like future food security, biodiversity, a clean water supply and safe habitats for Indigenous peoples. So we have incorporated sustainability criteria into our analysis, which forms the basis of our final figure for a Paris-consistent range of CDR.”
The report highlights that only 2 billion tonnes per year are currently being removed by CDR, and most through conventional methods like tree plantation. Novel CDR methods—like biochar, enhanced rock weathering, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—account for only 1.3 million tons per year, which is less than 0.1% of the total. Methods that are effectively permanent account for only 0.6 million tons per year, less than 0.05% of the total.
CDR has seen rapid growth in research, public awareness and start-up companies, but there are now signs of a slowdown in development across multiple indicators. Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) said “Deploying a diverse CDR portfolio is a more robust strategy than focusing on just one or two methods. Research, invention and investment in start-ups show diversification across CDR methods, but current deployment and government proposals for future implementation are more concentrated on conventional CDR, mainly through forestry.”
Only 1.1% of the total investment in climate-tech start-ups is directed towards carbon dioxide removal (CDR). According to the report, companies involved in CDR have ambitious goals that could collectively achieve levels consistent with the Paris Agreement. However, these ambitions currently lack credibility and rely on far stronger policies than those presently in place.
The report calls on governments to enact policies that will boost demand for carbon removal. Such policies should include integrating CDR into countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and developing improved systems for monitoring, reporting, and verification.