Supercritical has released new market data indicating that biochar suppliers delivered 54% fewer tonnes of carbon removal than originally forecast, highlighting delivery gaps in one of the most established carbon removal pathways.
The findings are detailed in the company’s report, Delivered or Delayed? How delivery risk is reshaping carbon removal procurement, which examines structural underdelivery in the carbon removal market and its implications for procurement strategies.
Based on proprietary data covering biochar capacity forecasts and actual deliveries, the analysis found that 73% of biochar projects revised their capacity downward in 2025, 55% delivered no credits, and 27% remained on target.
Biochar has accounted for the majority of durable carbon removal credits issued to date. However, the report notes that projects have faced financing delays, slower-than-expected scale-up and operational challenges that were underestimated in early projections.
“Carbon removal is not software. We’re talking about physical infrastructure,” said Michelle You, CEO and Co-Founder of Supercritical. “Delays aren’t about bad actors or broken science. They come with scaling new technologies. Buyers can deal with underdelivery, but only if they build portfolios designed to absorb it.”
The report states that delivery risk becomes more significant as corporate net-zero commitments translate into interim targets aligned with Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) guidance and emerging regulation. It argues that when carbon removal tonnes are delivered is increasingly as important as whether they are delivered, with implications for cost, compliance and corporate credibility.
According to the analysis, delivery risk increases when buyers rely on optimistic scale-up assumptions, rigid project timelines and contracts that do not clearly address shortfalls. Conversely, risk is reduced when procurement strategies are diversified across suppliers and pathways, delivery expectations are based on operational track records, and contracts define remedies for underdelivery in advance.
Supercritical concludes that the carbon removal market is shifting from an early-stage phase focused on pledges and initial support to a performance-driven phase in which delivery against near-term targets is becoming the defining factor.
