China has released a new five-year plan aimed at reducing the carbon intensity of its economy, relying largely on rapid expansion of renewable energy to limit coal use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Under the plan, China aims to cut carbon intensity — emissions per unit of GDP — by 17% between 2026 and 2030. Analysts say the target falls short of what is required to meet the country’s pledge under the Paris Agreement to reduce carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 levels by 2030.
The plan also does not set a cap on total emissions or a clear timeline for emissions to decline before 2030, which had been expected by international observers.
Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), said the target is “alarmingly lax” and could allow emissions to rise by 3–6% over the next five years given China’s economic growth projections. CREA estimates that China would need to cut carbon intensity by about 23% during the same period to stay on track for its Paris commitment.
During the previous five-year plan period, China reduced carbon intensity by 12%, missing its earlier target of an 18% cut.
Under the new framework, Beijing plans to replace around 30 million metric tonnes of coal with renewable energy over the next five years, while expanding wind and solar capacity. However, the plan does not impose strict limits on coal consumption.
China is also shifting its policy approach from controlling energy intensity to focusing on carbon intensity through a “dual-control” system that will introduce emissions controls at the industry, company and project level.
For 2026, China has set a carbon intensity reduction target of about 3.8%, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The country continues to maintain that its carbon emissions will peak before 2030.
Despite the modest targets, analysts note that China’s expanding renewable energy sector could still play a significant role in bending its emissions trajectory in the coming decade.
