China’s coal-dominated thermal power generation declined in 2025 for the first time in a decade, as rapid growth in renewable energy met rising electricity demand, according to official data released on Monday.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed thermal power output fell 1% year on year to 6.29 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh). The decline was more pronounced in December, when thermal generation dropped 3.2% compared with the same month a year earlier. Thermal electricity in China is generated mainly from coal, with a smaller share from natural gas.
The shift is seen as a positive signal for efforts to decarbonise China’s power sector as the country works towards a target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030. Coal production, however, still edged up to a record level last year.
Analysts attributed the decline in thermal generation to the rapid expansion of renewables and slower demand growth. “The record-level build-out of renewables over recent years has cumulatively impacted the generation mix and squeezed more coal out, coupled with a milder power demand growth of 5% in 2025,” said Peng Chengyao, head of APAC power and renewables research at S&P Global Energy. Power demand had grown 6.8% year on year in 2024, according to the China Electricity Council.
Despite the slowdown, electricity consumption still reached a new record in 2025. The National Energy Administration said total power use exceeded 10 trillion kWh for the first time, driven by rapid growth in internet-related services and electric vehicle manufacturing. Consumption was higher than the combined electricity use of the European Union, Russia, India and Japan in 2024.
NEA figures provide a broader view of power consumption than the NBS data, which excludes some smaller-scale wind and solar generation due to survey thresholds. NBS data showed total power generation reached 9.72 trillion kWh in 2025, up 2.2% from the previous year.
Other low-carbon sources continued to expand. Hydropower output rose 2.8% for the full year, while nuclear power generation increased 7.7%, according to the NBS.
Thermal power generation is unlikely to rebound in 2026 as renewable capacity continues to grow and electricity demand is expected to remain steady at around 5%, S&P forecasts.
