The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) green fuel strategy could lead to an additional 270 million tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, making it worse than taking no action, according to a new analysis by Transport & Environment (T&E).
The report warns that nearly a third of global shipping could run on biofuels by 2030, up from less than 1% today. However, under the IMO’s current draft policy, this shift could accelerate climate change and strain global food supplies.
The study, conducted by consultancy Cerulogy on behalf of T&E, highlights that palm and soy oil could make up 60% of biodiesel used in shipping by 2030 as they are the cheapest options for compliance. This presents a major environmental risk, as palm and soy biofuels produce two to three times more carbon emissions than the most polluting shipping fuels once deforestation is factored in.
With the shipping industry’s vast energy demands, the report estimates that 34 million hectares of farmland—an area the size of Germany—would be required to grow enough crops to meet projected biofuel demand by 2030. This shift could have severe consequences for global food security, as land for food production is repurposed for fuel crops.
Furthermore, the analysis suggests that up to 300 million bottles of vegetable oil could be diverted daily to fuel ships, potentially driving up grocery prices and reducing food availability.
Some major shipping companies, including MSC and CMA CGM, have invested in waste biofuels such as used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats. However, T&E warns that supplies of these fuels are far too limited to meet demand.
For instance, a single cargo ship travelling between China and Brazil would require the annual waste oil output from more than 2,000 McDonald’s restaurants. If powered by animal fats, it would take over one million pigs to fuel the same journey.
In response to the findings, shipping company Hapag-Lloyd and several NGOs have urged the IMO to exclude unsustainable biofuels from its list of green alternatives.
Constance Dijkstra, shipping manager at T&E warned, “Fueling cargo ships with deforestation is a terrible idea. Burning crops for fuel is bad for the planet and bad for global food security.”
T&E is calling on the IMO to establish a clear definition of ‘zero’ and ‘near-zero’ emission fuels, exclude deforestation-linked biofuels, cap the use of food-based biofuels, and prioritise green e-fuels produced from renewable hydrogen.
The IMO’s final decision on its green fuel policy will be critical in determining whether global shipping reduces or exacerbates climate and food security challenges in the coming decade.
