In a significant milestone for the European Green Deal, nearly half (49%) of all new city buses registered across the EU in 2024 were zero-emission (ZE), marking a rapid shift away from diesel-powered transport. This transition has outpaced projections by Transport & Environment (T&E), even though forecasts had anticipated exponential growth. The acceleration is largely attributed to an unexpected surge in fuel-cell bus adoption, which accounted for 3% of new EU city buses. Despite this, battery-electric models dominate, comprising 46% of the market share.
The success of zero-emission city buses stems from a combination of new European regulations and city-level policies. Regulatory changes introduced in 2023 sent a clear signal to the market that diesel buses are on the way out. Meanwhile, urban policies such as zero-emission zones and fleet electrification targets have reinforced the shift. As a result, the transition to ZE city buses is progressing at a much faster rate than mandated by the EU’s Clean Vehicle Directive and CO2 emissions standards for trucks and buses. If this trend continues, the EU could see an entirely zero-emission city bus market by 2027—bringing cleaner air and quieter streets to urban centres.
While the overall progress is strong, regional disparities remain. Some countries are well ahead of existing and forthcoming EU targets, while others lag behind, highlighting the continued need for national-level policies. Public procurement criteria could play a crucial role in further accelerating the transition by prioritising battery-electric and fuel cell buses over gas and hybrid technologies. Moreover, favouring buses manufactured within Europe would ensure that public investment supports local jobs and industry.
The Netherlands, Finland, and Iceland emerged as leaders in the transition, with 100% of new city buses being battery-electric in 2024. Among larger markets—those with over 1,000 annual new city bus registrations—Spain took the top spot with a 57% ZE share, narrowly surpassing the United Kingdom at 56%. Italy followed with 44%, slightly below the EU average of 49%. France and Germany ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, with one-third of their new city buses being zero-emission.
Estonia’s transformation underscores the pace of change. After failing to register a single zero-emission bus in 2023, the country made a dramatic leap in 2024, with 84% of its new city buses being battery-electric. This turnaround followed the introduction of Estonia’s first electric buses in Tallinn in April 2024.
Hydrogen fuel cell buses are also gaining ground, doubling their market share from 2023 to nearly 3% in 2024. However, their adoption patterns have shifted. Previously more common in smaller markets, fuel cell buses are now seeing stronger uptake in major markets. The Netherlands, which once led in hydrogen buses, has seen a steady decline in their share, from 20% in 2021 to 0% in 2024.
Despite the success of zero-emission buses, other alternative powertrains have remained relatively stagnant. Hybrid buses, which typically account for about a fifth of new EU city bus sales, fell to 16% in 2024. Similarly, gas-powered city buses held steady at a historically low 14% market share.
Given the relatively small size of the city bus market in each European country, a cumulative assessment since 2021 provides a broader picture of overall performance. The Netherlands stands out as the frontrunner, with diesel buses making up less than 1% of new sales since 2021. Nordic countries, alongside several Eastern and Southern European nations, are also making strong progress. In Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece, around two-thirds of new city buses have been battery-electric since 2021.
However, some nations continue to lag behind. Austria, Czechia, Hungary, Estonia, Slovakia, and Croatia have been slower to embrace the transition, with all but Hungary already identified as stragglers in a 2022 analysis. Nevertheless, recent signs indicate that even these countries are beginning to move in the right direction.
Looking ahead, 2025 is expected to mark a turning point, with over half of all new city buses projected to be zero-emission. If this prediction holds, the transition could accelerate significantly, bringing even the slowest adopters closer to Europe’s climate goals.
