Global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to begin declining within the next decade for the first time in history, according to a new United Nations analysis. However, the projected pace of reduction remains far too slow to prevent worsening climate impacts and extreme weather events, the UN cautioned on Tuesday.
The assessment by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) found that if governments fully implement their current climate pledges, global emissions would fall by around 10% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels. It marks the first time the UN has forecast a sustained fall in global emissions, which have steadily risen since 1990.
Yet the projected decline is only a fraction of what is needed. Scientists say emissions must drop by about 60% by 2035 to keep global temperature rise within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — a critical threshold beyond which the world faces far more catastrophic consequences, including heatwaves, droughts, floods and sea-level rise.
The shortfall adds urgency ahead of next month’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where countries are under growing pressure to strengthen their commitments — even as the United States, under President Donald Trump, moves to roll back key climate policies.
“Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. “It’s now for COP30 and for the world to respond and show how we are going to speed up.”
Many governments have delayed submitting more ambitious targets, citing economic and geopolitical challenges. The UNFCCC reported that only 64 countries met the September deadline to file their final national climate plans, covering just 30% of global emissions.
To provide a fuller picture, the UN included announced but unsubmitted pledges — such as those from China and the European Union — in its global analysis. However, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the United States’ trajectory, as the assessment includes the 2024 emissions-cutting pledge that Trump is expected to scrap.
China, which accounts for about 29% of global annual emissions, pledged last month to reduce emissions by 7–10% from their peak by 2035 but did not specify when that peak would occur. Some experts argue Beijing could outperform its stated target.
“China tends to under-commit,” said Norah Zhang, a climate policy analyst at the NewClimate Institute. “The country met its 2030 renewable energy target six years early, so there is scope for far greater ambition.”
The findings underscore both progress and peril — signalling that the global community is finally beginning to curb emissions growth, but at a pace that remains dangerously inadequate to stabilise the planet’s climate.
