U.S. data centre electricity demand could reach 106 GW by 2035, according to a new BloombergNEF forecast—one of the most aggressive long-term estimates published to date. The U.S. had roughly 25 GW of operating data centre capacity in 2024, data from Bloom Energy shows.
BNEF’s updated projection is 36% higher than its April estimate. The revision reflects a surge in large-scale proposals: more than 150 major U.S. data centre projects were announced over the past year, with over a quarter exceeding 500 MW in planned capacity.
The forecast arrives amid growing debate over whether soaring load expectations are being driven by genuine need or by an emerging AI-driven speculative bubble. Several energy researchers have warned that long-term projections may be inflated.
Concerns over potential overestimates
Grid Strategies reported last month that utility forecasts of 90 GW of new data centre load by 2030 were “likely overstated,” suggesting a nearer-term increase of about 65 GW. A U.S. Department of Energy analysis from July projected the need for 100 GW of new peak capacity by 2030, half of which would stem from data centre growth. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates data centres could account for up to 12% of U.S. peak demand by 2028.
Some analysts caution that not all announced projects will advance, citing chip supply shortages, duplicate permit applications and over-optimistic timelines. A July report from London Economics International argued that meeting 2030 load projections would require 90% of the world’s chip output—an “unrealistic” scenario.
Shifting geography of development
BNEF’s project tracker shows new build-out spreading beyond traditional hubs such as Northern Virginia, Atlanta and central Ohio into regions with established fibre-optic routes, including parts of the Carolinas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Texas and the Gulf Coast.
Much of the planned capacity would fall under the grids of PJM Interconnection, MISO and ERCOT. BNEF expects PJM alone could see an additional 31 GW of data centre demand over the next five years—outpacing forecast generation additions.
The North American Electric Reliability Corp. has already warned of an “elevated risk” of summer shortfalls in PJM, MISO and ERCOT through 2026 and beyond. But some experts dispute the analysis, with MISO’s independent market monitor arguing NERC’s methodology overstated the risk.
Despite uncertainty, operators and regulators face what BNEF describes as an “inflection moment,” as they weigh record-high data centre demand against the need to maintain reliable power for all customers.
