The US solar industry could install 27% less capacity between 2026 and 2030 than previously projected, following the rollback of clean energy subsidies under President Donald Trump’s tax law, according to a report published on Monday.
The forecast, by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and consultancy Wood Mackenzie, highlights the potential impact of policies introduced during the Trump administration, which have curtailed incentives central to former President Joe Biden’s climate agenda.
Abigail Ross Hopper, SEIA president and chief executive, said the measures were “deliberately stifling investment” in renewables.
“Instead of unleashing this American economic engine, the Trump administration is deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardising the reliability of our electric grid,” she said.
Solar and storage dominated new capacity additions in the first half of 2025, accounting for 82% of installations. Domestic solar module manufacturing expanded by 13 GW during the same period, bringing total US capacity to 55 GW.
The report noted that more than three-quarters of solar capacity installed this year has been in Republican-leaning states, including Texas, Indiana and Florida. At the same time, costs have climbed: utility-scale projects rose by 4%, residential systems by 2% and commercial installations by 10% in the second quarter, driven by tariffs on imports and rising permitting and overhead expenses.
The industry warned that without policy intervention, the slowdown threatens not only clean energy deployment but also energy affordability and grid resilience.
