Around eight million properties in England (one in four) could be at risk of flooding by 2050, driven by the effects of climate change, according to a new assessment from the Environment Agency (EA).
The EA’s first comprehensive report on climate-related flood risks highlights growing threats from heavier rainfall and rising sea levels. The number of vulnerable properties could surpass current projections if housing developments on floodplains increase. However, improved flood defences could mitigate these risks.
New figures reveal that 6.3 million properties are currently at risk of flooding—a number higher than previously estimated. The EA attributes this to enhanced data and modelling techniques. Surface flooding poses the largest threat, with 4.6 million homes and businesses currently at risk. London remains the most affected region.
Climate change could push this figure to 6.1 million properties by 2050. The report also foresees a rise in properties at risk from river and coastal flooding, increasing from 2.4 million today to 3.1 million by mid-century. Heavier rainfall during winters and rising sea levels are driving these risks.
Recent data underscores the impact of a warming climate on rainfall intensity. Between October 2023 and March 2024, the UK experienced 20% more rainfall on stormiest days due to climate change. Sea levels around the UK have risen by nearly 20 cm since 1900, with most of the increase occurring after 1990. This trend is expected to continue for centuries.
Sea-level rise also exacerbates coastal erosion, making the UK’s already fast-eroding coastlines more vulnerable. By 2100, nearly 20,000 properties could be lost to the sea, even with robust shoreline management, up from 3,500 projected losses by mid-century.
The EA report highlights the need for sustained investment in flood defences. Despite efforts like the Thames Barrier, which has protected London from river and coastal flooding, regions such as the East Midlands, Yorkshire, and the southeast face heightened risks.
Earlier this year, a cross-party committee of MPs criticized the government for failing to maintain and expand flood defences adequately, citing a lack of funding as a significant barrier.
In response to the report, Floods Minister Emma Hardy stated, “Too many communities are exposed to the dangers of flooding,” and pledged £2.4 billion over the next two years for flood defence projects to protect vulnerable areas.
As climate change accelerates, the EA warns that stronger action and better preparedness will be essential to mitigate the risks of future flooding.