Oxfam has said the world’s richest 1% used up their annual carbon budget for 2026 within the first ten days of the year, based on new analysis assessing emissions compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The wealthiest 0.1% exceeded their individual carbon limits by 3 January.
The date has been labelled “Pollutocrat Day” by Oxfam, which said the findings illustrate the disproportionate contribution of the world’s richest individuals to the climate crisis.
The analysis is grounded in carbon-budget estimates aligned with the 1.5°C temperature goal. According to the United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2024, the median estimate of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 consistent with limiting warming to around 1.5°C is 24 GtCO₂e (range: 20–26 GtCO₂e). Based on the 2019 share of carbon dioxide in total greenhouse gas emissions (74.1%), this equates to approximately 17.8 GtCO₂. With the global population projected by the UN to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, this implies an average annual carbon budget of roughly 2.1 tonnes of CO₂ per person.
According to Oxfam’s analysis, emissions produced by the richest 1% in a single year are projected to contribute to an estimated 1.3 million heat-related deaths by the end of the century. Long-term excess emissions from the super-rich are also linked to significant economic damage in low- and lower-middle-income countries, with losses projected to reach up to $44 trillion by 2050.
To remain within the 1.5°C warming threshold, Oxfam said the richest 1% would need to cut their emissions by 97% by 2030. The organisation warned that communities with the lowest responsibility for global emissions—including people in climate-vulnerable regions, Indigenous groups, women and girls—are likely to experience the most severe impacts.
“Time and time again, the research shows that governments have a very clear and simple route to drastically slash carbon emissions and tackle inequality: by targeting the richest polluters,” said Nafkote Dabi, Oxfam’s climate policy lead. “By cracking down on the gross carbon recklessness of the super-rich, global leaders have an opportunity to put the world back on track for climate targets and unlock net benefits for people and the planet.”
The analysis also found that emissions linked to the investment portfolios of wealthy individuals significantly add to their climate impact. On average, each billionaire is associated with investments in companies that generate an estimated 1.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.
Oxfam further highlighted the political influence of wealthy individuals and corporations, noting that fossil fuel lobbyists formed one of the largest delegations at the most recent COP summit in Brazil, with around 1,600 representatives—second only to the host country.
“The immense power and wealth of super-rich individuals and corporations have also allowed them to wield unjust influence over policymaking and water down climate negotiations,” Dabi added.
The organisation called on governments to curb emissions linked to the super-rich through measures including higher taxes on income and wealth, excess profit taxes on fossil fuel companies, and restrictions or higher taxation on carbon-intensive luxury assets such as private jets and super-yachts.
Oxfam’s research, using data from the Stockholm Environment Institute, found that the richest 1% emit an average of 75.1 tonnes of CO₂ per person per year, or around 0.206 tonnes per day. At that rate, just 10.2 days of emissions are enough to exhaust the 2.1-tonne annual carbon budget compatible with the 1.5°C pathway.
The organisation’s latest report, Climate Plunder: How a powerful few are locking the world into disaster, finds that a person from the richest 0.1% produces more carbon pollution in a single day than the poorest 50% emit in an entire year. If everyone emitted at the same level as the richest 0.1%, the global carbon budget would be exhausted in less than three weeks.
Oxfam’s briefing paper, How to increase taxes on fossil fuel profits, proposes a Rich Polluter Profit Tax on fossil fuel corporations and an Excess Profit Tax across other sectors. Together, these measures could raise more than $1 trillion in their first year, the organisation said.
Previous Oxfam research, including A Planet for the Richest 99% and Climate Inequality Kills, has linked the emissions of the world’s super-rich to millions of heat-related deaths and trillions of dollars in economic damage, with low- and lower-middle-income countries bearing the heaviest burden. The International Court of Justice has also affirmed that countries have a legal obligation to reduce emissions sufficiently to protect universal rights to life, food, health and a clean environment.
